A United Front or Fragile Alliance? The Reality of Authoritarian Cooperation Between Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea

Is There an Axis of Autocracies?

The Nature and Extent of Authoritarian Cooperation

The cooperation between China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea presents a significant geopolitical challenge but should not be overstated. While these nations collaborate in strategic and military areas, their partnerships remain largely opportunistic, driven by immediate national interests rather than a cohesive ideological framework. Unlike the structured alliances of democratic states, their relationships are primarily bilateral, lack institutional depth, and are characterized by varying degrees of mutual distrust.

China as the Central Actor

China serves as the central actor in this network, leveraging its economic strength, diplomatic influence, and technological capabilities to support and coordinate efforts among these regimes. While Beijing has not provided direct military assistance to Russia’s war effort in Ukraine, it has supplied dual-use technologies that sustain Russia’s military-industrial base. Similarly, Iran and North Korea have contributed drones, missiles, and even personnel to bolster Russia’s position, often receiving economic and technological incentives in return. These interactions indicate a pragmatic approach to cooperation, rather than a formalized alliance.

China’s influence extends beyond military coordination to a broader strategy of reshaping global governance. It systematically promotes alternative international institutions, such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) and BRICS, as counterweights to Western-led organizations. Through economic investments, infrastructure projects, and digital influence, China expands its ability to shape the political environments of both authoritarian states and vulnerable democracies. Notably, China’s technological exports—surveillance infrastructure and artificial intelligence—entrench authoritarian control in client states, creating dependencies that reinforce its global influence.

Military and Security Cooperation

Strategic Objectives and the Role of Russia’s War in Ukraine

China’s increasing security cooperation with Russia, Iran, and North Korea is not driven by ideological alignment but by shared strategic interests in countering U.S. global influence and reshaping international security structures. Each of these states faces Western military, economic, and political pressure, and their growing collaboration is a means to resist containment efforts by the United States and its allies.

The war in Ukraine has played a crucial role in accelerating coordination among these regimes. Russia’s dependence on external support has led to deeper engagement with Iran and North Korea, with Iran supplying drones and missiles, and North Korea providing artillery shells and manpower. However, this cooperation remains tactical rather than strategic, and its sustainability post-war remains uncertain.

For China, this axis is particularly valuable in creating a multipolar world where it does not bear the full costs of challenging the U.S. alone. Russia’s willingness to engage in direct military confrontation in Ukraine, Iran’s destabilizing activities in the Middle East, and North Korea’s persistent provocations in East Asia force the U.S. to divide its focus and resources. This strategic dispersion allows China to continue expanding its military and economic reach, particularly in the Indo-Pacific, while minimizing direct confrontations with the U.S.

China-Russia Military and Security Cooperation

China and Russia have significantly expanded their military and security cooperation since 2014, engaging in joint military exercises, arms trade, and strategic coordination in disinformation and cyber operations. While both nations deny having a formal military alliance, their deepening collaboration suggests a high level of strategic coordination. They have conducted joint naval patrols in the Pacific, Arctic, and Mediterranean, large-scale military drills, and defense technology exchanges, including agreements on missile warning systems and space cooperation.

Despite growing ties, limitations remain. China remains cautious about overcommitting to Russia’s military ambitions, particularly given the economic risks associated with secondary sanctions. Additionally, while China has provided Russia with significant dual-use technologies, semiconductors, and drone components, it has avoided direct lethal aid, a threshold that could provoke stronger Western countermeasures. Furthermore, Russia’s military cooperation with North Korea and Iran introduces complications, as China does not fully control or trust its partners’ actions.

Iran’s Role in China’s Strategic Calculus

Iran plays a crucial role in China’s security and economic strategy, primarily in energy security, military cooperation, and regional influence. China has been Iran’s largest trading partner since 2012, purchasing heavily discounted oil despite U.S. sanctions, providing Tehran with a financial lifeline. Beyond trade, China has supported Iran’s missile and drone programs through technology transfers, satellite access via the Beidou system, and cyber collaboration. These advancements have enhanced Iran’s asymmetric warfare capabilities, demonstrated through attacks in the Middle East and arms exports to Russia.

However, China’s engagement with Iran is carefully calibrated to avoid damaging its broader interests in the Middle East. While China conducts trilateral naval drills with Iran and Russia, it has not extended military commitments that could jeopardize its relationships with Gulf states like Saudi Arabia and the UAE.

China’s Complex Relationship with North Korea

China’s relationship with North Korea is marked by a historical alliance, economic dependency, and strategic caution. While China remains North Korea’s primary economic and political supporter, it is not fully aligned with Pyongyang’s military ambitions. North Korea’s expanding arms trade with Russia has complicated Beijing’s efforts to maintain influence over Pyongyang.

Despite tensions, China indirectly supports North Korea’s missile and nuclear program through dual-use technology transfers, illicit trade networks, and diplomatic protection at the UN. However, China remains wary of North Korean actions that could provoke U.S. intervention or destabilize the Korean Peninsula. While Beijing benefits from North Korean provocations that divert U.S. focus from Taiwan, it does not want an escalation that could bring American military forces closer to China’s borders.

Economic and Technological Dependencies as Tools of Influence

China’s Role in Sanctions Evasion

China serves as a financial and logistical enabler for Russia, Iran, and North Korea, facilitating their ability to bypass Western sanctions. Through opaque financial channels, third-country procurement networks, and barter trade, China enables these regimes to sustain revenue streams and acquire restricted goods. Offshore dollar-clearing mechanisms and shadow banking networks provide an avenue for illicit transactions while minimizing direct exposure to U.S. sanctions. Chinese entities also supply Russia with critical technology and military-related components, often routed through intermediary states.

Sanctions evasion relies on several key strategies, including the “shadow fleet”, alternative currency transactions, and complex money laundering schemes. The “shadow fleet” consists of aging vessels engaged in clandestine oil shipments, allowing sanctioned states to maintain energy exports despite restrictions. China, as a primary buyer, benefits from discounted Russian and Iranian oil, reducing the effectiveness of Western efforts to restrict revenue inflows to these regimes.

Russia’s Economic Dependence on China

Since the imposition of Western sanctions, Russia’s economy has grown increasingly dependent on China. While China secures economic advantages from this relationship, Russia relies on Chinese markets for energy exports, industrial goods, and financial services. This dynamic creates an asymmetric partnership, where China maintains economic leverage while remaining cautious of direct secondary sanctions.

North Korea’s Financial Networks

North Korea’s sanctions evasion strategies involve illicit cyber activities, overseas labor networks, and front companies operating through China and Russia. Hong Kong serves as a hub for financial transactions, obscuring North Korean and Iranian dealings, allowing illicit funds to flow through Chinese financial institutions.

Alternative Currencies and Cryptocurrencies in Sanctions Evasion

While cryptocurrency plays a growing role in illicit finance, the majority of sanctions evasion still occurs through traditional financial systems and banking intermediaries. China’s expansion of alternative payment networks enables sanctioned states to conduct trade outside the dollar-based financial system. However, reliance on China’s controlled currency creates long-term vulnerabilities for Russia and other sanctioned states.

Constraints and Divergences

Despite their shared opposition to U.S. dominance, significant internal contradictions exist within this emerging authoritarian bloc. China is reluctant to engage in direct military confrontations that could trigger economic repercussions, as evidenced by its cautious approach to Russia’s war in Ukraine and its careful diplomatic balancing in the Middle East.

Russia, while benefiting from Chinese economic and technological support, does not fully trust Beijing and has restricted access to its most sensitive military technologies. Meanwhile, Iran and North Korea seek deeper ties with China and Russia, but their unpredictable actions—such as Iran’s aggressive military posture and North Korea’s increasing alignment with Moscow—introduce risks for Beijing. These differences highlight the transactional nature of their partnerships, which remain opportunistic rather than based on deep strategic trust.

Sources

• U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission (25.02.20)

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