What Impact Will Artificial Intelligence Have on Security Relations Between the United States and China?
As artificial intelligence reshapes military strategy and cyber capabilities, its role in U.S.-China security relations grows increasingly complex. With both nations racing for dominance, the evolving landscape of AI-driven security will have far-reaching implications for global stability.
Navigating the Future of AI in Global Security
Artificial Intelligence (AI) is rapidly transforming the landscape of national security, raising critical questions about its impact on global stability. A joint U.S.-China dialogue, initiated by the Brookings Institution and Tsinghua University's Center for International Security and Strategy (CISS), has sought to address these challenges by fostering mutual understanding and collaboration. Over five years and 11 rounds of discussions, this dialogue has examined AI’s potential in military contexts, the risks of miscommunication, and the path to shared governance standards.
Defining Challenges and Opportunities in AI Governance
One of the dialogue’s central achievements has been identifying the lack of shared definitions for key AI concepts as a major obstacle to mutual understanding. To bridge this gap, participants developed a comprehensive glossary of AI terminology, enabling precise communication and reducing the risk of misinterpretation. This foundational work has illuminated how differing cultural, philosophical, and strategic perspectives shape views on AI, particularly regarding its military applications and the concept of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI).
AI’s role in military settings emerged as a particularly sensitive area, with both sides acknowledging the dual-edged potential of the technology. On one hand, AI could enhance strategic decision-making and operational efficiency; on the other, its misuse or failure could escalate conflicts or erode human control over critical systems.
Consensus on Human Oversight and Safety Standards
A key point of agreement was the necessity of keeping humans in control of nuclear and other critical military decisions. Both sides emphasized the risks of delegating life-and-death choices to AI systems, particularly in high-stakes scenarios where errors could have catastrophic consequences. This principle, endorsed at the highest political levels, reflects a shared commitment to ensuring that technological advancements do not undermine global stability.
Additionally, participants highlighted the importance of developing technical safeguards to prevent unintended escalation in military conflicts involving AI. These safeguards could address vulnerabilities such as biased algorithms, misaligned incentives, and the unintended consequences of autonomous systems operating in complex environments.
Practical Tools for Dialogue and Risk Mitigation
The dialogue employed innovative methods, including war games and scenario planning, to explore potential conflicts and test assumptions about AI’s role in security settings. These exercises provided a neutral framework for participants to analyze risks, identify shared concerns, and confront misunderstandings in a constructive manner. By simulating real-world scenarios, participants gained insights into the unintended consequences of AI deployment and the importance of proactive governance.
These exercises also revealed asymmetries in how the U.S. and China perceive and prioritize risks. While both nations acknowledge the transformative potential of AI, Chinese participants often emphasize a pragmatic, application-focused approach, while U.S. participants demonstrate greater interest in long-term strategic implications, including the pursuit of AGI.
Challenges and Next Steps
The dialogue faced significant challenges, including geopolitical tensions and divergent priorities between the U.S. and China. Despite these obstacles, participants underscored the importance of sustained communication and the need to develop norms and agreements on AI use in military contexts. There was broad agreement that escalating competition without clear guardrails could lead to an AI arms race, with dangerous consequences for global security.
Looking ahead, participants highlighted the urgency of building international consensus on AI governance. Establishing confidence-building measures, promoting transparency, and engaging a broader community of stakeholders—including governments, academics, and the private sector—will be critical to mitigating risks and fostering trust.
A Path Toward Collaborative Governance
The U.S.-China dialogue on AI and national security demonstrates that meaningful collaboration is possible even in a climate of strategic competition. By addressing fundamental challenges, such as shared definitions, technical safeguards, and mutual trust, the dialogue has laid a foundation for more stable and cooperative AI governance.
As AI continues to reshape the global security landscape, these efforts provide a model for international cooperation. By prioritizing human oversight, safety, and transparency, the global community can harness AI’s transformative potential while safeguarding peace and stability.
Sources
- Brookings (25.01.10)
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