How Realistic Is NASA’s Plan to Use the Moon as a Gateway to Mars?

NASA’s Moon to Mars initiative is a long-term effort aimed at establishing a sustained human presence beyond Earth. The program envisions the Moon as a testing ground for technologies and operational strategies that will be necessary for future crewed missions to Mars. Unlike past space exploration efforts that focused on single-mission objectives, this initiative aims to develop a permanent infrastructure that enables continued deep-space exploration. However, achieving these goals involves overcoming a range of technical, industrial, and policy challenges, including long-duration space travel, supply chain dependencies, and political uncertainties.

One of the central components of the Moon to Mars strategy is the Artemis program, which serves as the foundation for lunar exploration. Through a series of crewed and uncrewed missions, Artemis aims to establish a sustainable presence on the Moon, develop new technologies for space habitats, and explore the potential for utilizing lunar resources. The knowledge gained from these missions will inform the design and planning of future Mars expeditions, where the challenges of distance, radiation exposure, and life support sustainability become even more complex.

While the concept of using the Moon as a stepping stone to Mars has been widely accepted, the logistical and economic viability of this approach remains a topic of discussion. Critics argue that investing directly in Mars-focused technologies may be more efficient than maintaining a separate lunar infrastructure. Others suggest that a phased approach, starting with the Moon, allows for incremental development of key technologies before committing to a multi-year mission to Mars. These differing perspectives highlight the fundamental uncertainties in the long-term trajectory of human space exploration.

The Artemis Program: Establishing a Lunar Presence

NASA’s Artemis program, launched in 2017, represents the first major step toward returning humans to the Moon since the Apollo era. Unlike Apollo, which focused on short-term missions, Artemis is designed to build an enduring infrastructure that supports long-term habitation, scientific research, and resource utilization. The first mission in the series, Artemis I, successfully tested the Space Launch System (SLS) and Orion spacecraft in 2022. The next phase, Artemis II, will send a crewed spacecraft around the Moon, while Artemis III is expected to mark the first crewed lunar landing since 1972.

One of the primary objectives of Artemis is to establish a permanent lunar presence through the construction of habitats and research facilities. This requires advancements in power generation, life support systems, and mobility technologies to support extended stays on the lunar surface. The Lunar Gateway, a planned orbital station around the Moon, is expected to serve as a logistical hub for lunar operations and, potentially, for future Mars-bound missions.

The development of in-situ resource utilization (ISRU) is another key component of Artemis, as it focuses on extracting and processing lunar materials for oxygen, water, and fuel production. Water ice deposits at the Moon’s poles could play a crucial role in reducing reliance on Earth-based resupply missions. However, the extent and accessibility of these resources remain uncertain, and significant technological advancements are needed before large-scale resource extraction becomes viable.

Despite the clear objectives of Artemis, questions remain regarding cost efficiency and long-term sustainability. Establishing a lunar infrastructure requires continuous investment, and some experts argue that the focus should shift toward direct Mars missions. Others contend that a staged approach, starting with the Moon, provides a more gradual and manageable path toward interplanetary travel. The debate underscores the broader question of how best to allocate resources for deep-space exploration in the coming decades.

Technical and Logistical Challenges of Mars Exploration

While the Moon provides an opportunity to refine technologies for deep-space habitation, the challenges of sending humans to Mars are significantly greater. The primary obstacle is distance. Unlike the Moon, which is only 400,000 kilometers from Earth, Mars is, at its closest approach, 55 million kilometers away—a distance that introduces complex logistical constraints. A round-trip mission to Mars could take two to three years, requiring spacecraft capable of long-duration life support without the possibility of rapid resupply.

Radiation exposure is another major concern. Earth’s magnetic field protects astronauts in low Earth orbit, but Mars lacks a similar protective shield. The thin atmosphere provides little defense against cosmic radiation and solar particle events, which could pose serious health risks to astronauts on long-duration missions. NASA is exploring various countermeasures, including radiation shielding, pharmaceutical interventions, and predictive space weather monitoring, but long-term exposure to high-energy radiation remains one of the most unresolved risks of Mars travel.

Sustaining human life on Mars also requires reliable life support and resource utilization systems. The International Space Station (ISS) currently recycles 98% of water and some breathable air, but these systems need to be even more efficient for Mars missions. Oxygen and water production using Martian resources—either from the planet’s atmosphere or subsurface ice—could reduce dependency on Earth, but these technologies are still in early development stages. Establishing self-sufficient habitats remains one of the most significant challenges for long-duration Mars exploration.

Landing and surface operations present additional difficulties. Unlike the Moon, which has no atmosphere, Mars' thin atmosphere complicates entry and descent. Parachutes alone are insufficient for heavy payloads, necessitating the use of supersonic retropropulsion systems, similar to those employed by SpaceX’s Falcon 9 rocket landings. Once on the surface, astronauts will require pressurized habitats, power generation infrastructure, and mobility systems capable of withstanding extreme temperature fluctuations and dust storms.

Industrial and Supply Chain Considerations

Beyond the technical challenges, the success of the Moon to Mars initiative depends on the health of the U.S. aerospace supply chain. Many of the industrial capabilities that supported previous space programs, including Apollo and the Space Shuttle, have deteriorated or disappeared due to outsourcing and industry shifts.

The space sector also faces a shortage of skilled labor, particularly in advanced manufacturing, avionics, and propulsion systems. The decline in domestic aerospace manufacturing raises concerns about whether NASA and private sector partners can meet the demands of a sustained deep-space exploration program. Addressing these issues requires strategic investment in workforce development and industrial revitalization, particularly in sectors essential for spacecraft production and mission logistics.

Another factor influencing the feasibility of long-term space exploration is the uncertainty of funding and policy stability. Space programs often face budget fluctuations and shifts in political priorities, which can disrupt long-term planning. NASA’s reliance on annual appropriations and shifting policy directives adds an additional layer of complexity. For the Moon to Mars initiative to succeed, it requires sustained financial commitment and clear strategic direction, independent of short-term political changes.

International Collaboration and Geopolitical Considerations

Space exploration is increasingly shaped by international cooperation and competition. The Artemis Accords, a multinational agreement on lunar exploration, have been signed by over 30 countries, establishing shared principles for space activity. The Lunar Gateway, a collaboration involving NASA, the European Space Agency (ESA), Japan, and Canada, highlights the growing global partnerships in space exploration. However, the growing presence of China and Russia in space exploration introduces geopolitical dimensions that could influence the future direction of deep-space initiatives.

The role of the private sector is also expanding, with companies such as SpaceX, Blue Origin, and Lockheed Martin playing a crucial role in spacecraft development, launch services, and space infrastructure. The increasing commercialization of space raises questions about how responsibilities will be divided between government agencies and private entities in future deep-space missions.

Conclusion

The Moon to Mars program represents a significant step in human space exploration, but it is not without challenges. The technological, economic, and political uncertainties surrounding deep-space travel require continued assessment and adaptation. While the Moon offers a valuable testing ground for long-duration space missions, the transition to Mars presents a series of unique and unresolved challenges. The success of this initiative will depend on a combination of technological innovation, industrial resilience, sustained funding, and strategic policy decisions in the coming years. Whether this roadmap will ultimately lead to a permanent human presence on Mars remains an open question, but its development will shape the future of space exploration for decades to come.

Sources

• CSIS. 2025. NASA's Moon to Mars Roadmap: Charting the Next Year. Center for Strategic and International Studies. February 24.

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