The Quantum Race: A New Era of Scientific Progress or Strategic Rivalry?

Quantum technology is emerging as one of the most transformative fields of the 21st century, with applications extending beyond quantum computing to navigation, cryptography, sensing, artificial intelligence (AI), and complex simulations. These advancements have the potential to reshape national security, economic structures, and technological capabilities on a global scale. The development and deployment of quantum technologies may influence strategic power balances, much like nuclear technology and the internet did in earlier eras.

Several leading nations, including the United States, China, the United Kingdom, and members of the European Union, have recognized quantum technology as a key area of competition, investing heavily in research, development, and commercialization. Some, such as China, have pursued state-directed approaches, integrating government-led research institutions with national security and industrial strategies. Others, such as the United States, have relied more on private-sector innovation and market-driven progress, with varying levels of state involvement. The trajectory of quantum development, and the extent to which different countries achieve technological leadership, will likely depend on a combination of investment strategies, policy coordination, workforce capabilities, and international collaboration.

The Geopolitical Stakes: Quantum as a Strategic Asset

The strategic significance of quantum technologies lies in their ability to enable breakthroughs in encryption, secure communications, advanced sensing, and computational power. Some governments, such as China’s, have adopted centralized approaches, directing research and development through national laboratories and industrial policies. Others, such as the U.S. and the European Union, have emphasized private-sector-led advancements, with governments playing a supporting role by funding basic research, providing infrastructure support, and setting regulatory frameworks.

The pace of quantum development varies across different regions, with investments being made in diverse areas such as quantum computing infrastructure, post-quantum cryptography, quantum networks, and materials science. The speed at which nations progress in these fields, as well as their ability to integrate quantum advancements into economic and security frameworks, will influence future power dynamics.

A major factor in the global quantum race is the ability to develop practical applications beyond theoretical research. Countries that successfully transition from laboratory research to commercially viable technologies may gain a significant advantage in critical sectors, including defense, finance, and communications. Additionally, access to quantum hardware, rare materials, and semiconductor components plays a key role in determining the scalability and deployment of quantum systems.

The long-term implications of quantum development are still unfolding. While some countries, such as China and the United States, have focused on securing an early lead, the evolution of quantum ecosystems, regulatory frameworks, and cross-border collaborations could alter the trajectory of technological leadership over the next decade.

Applications and Their Potential Impact

National Security and Defense

Quantum technologies have the potential to impact military and intelligence operations through advancements in navigation, encryption, and sensing. Quantum navigation systems, which do not rely on satellite signals, could provide secure and resilient alternatives to GPS, reducing vulnerabilities in electronic warfare scenarios. This capability is being actively explored by the United States and European Union countries, as traditional GPS infrastructure is increasingly seen as a potential target for disruption.

Quantum cryptography and secure communications will redefine cybersecurity. Current encryption methods rely on computational complexity to deter attacks, but quantum computing could break these defenses, exposing government secrets, financial transactions, and classified intelligence. The development of post-quantum cryptographic standards is already underway, with institutions such as the U.S. National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) leading efforts to establish encryption methods resistant to quantum decryption. Countries that implement these new standards ahead of potential adversaries will mitigate the risks associated with quantum-enabled cyber threats.

Quantum sensing technologies may enable highly precise detection systems, improving surveillance and reconnaissance capabilities. Quantum-enhanced radar, for example, could potentially detect stealth aircraft and submarines with greater accuracy than current technologies. Some reports suggest that China has made significant progress in quantum radar research, though the extent of its capabilities remains uncertain. Advances in quantum simulation could further refine military strategy and decision-making by allowing for more sophisticated predictive modeling.

The extent to which quantum technologies alter military capabilities will depend on the speed of their deployment, the effectiveness of countermeasures, and the integration of these technologies into existing defense infrastructure. Countries with advanced quantum research programs may seek to leverage these capabilities to strengthen their strategic positions.

Economic and Technological Disruption

Beyond national security, quantum technologies are expected to drive significant changes in industries such as computing, healthcare, materials science, and finance. Quantum computing could accelerate drug discovery by simulating molecular interactions at an atomic level, potentially reducing the time and cost associated with developing new pharmaceuticals. Major pharmaceutical companies in the U.S. and Germany are already investing in quantum-based drug research to optimize treatment development.

Quantum computing will also reshape financial markets, as quantum algorithms enhance risk modeling, fraud detection, and economic forecasting. Institutions such as JPMorgan Chase and Deutsche Bank have begun exploring the use of quantum computing for complex financial simulations.

Materials science stands to benefit from quantum advancements, as quantum simulations could lead to the discovery of novel materials with improved strength, efficiency, and durability. These developments may have implications for aerospace, energy production, and infrastructure.

Despite these opportunities, scaling quantum technology remains a challenge. The production of stable quantum processors, the refinement of quantum error correction, and the development of quantum-compatible software architectures are areas that require further progress. Countries that overcome these technical barriers first may be able to commercialize quantum applications more rapidly, influencing global markets.

Supply chain considerations also play a role in determining access to quantum technologies. Some nations, such as China, have prioritized the domestic production of quantum components, while others, such as the U.S. and Japan, rely on international supply chains. The degree to which supply chains remain stable or become subject to restrictions could influence the distribution of quantum capabilities.

Factors Influencing the Future Balance

Investment Strategies and Federal Coordination

The scale and consistency of investment in quantum research and development will likely determine how quickly nations advance in this field. Some governments, such as China’s, have committed substantial funding through state-sponsored research programs, while others, such as the United Kingdom and Canada, have adopted hybrid approaches, supporting both public and private initiatives. The alignment of funding priorities with long-term technological goals will be a key factor in sustaining progress.

Public-private collaboration also plays a crucial role in bridging the gap between research and application. In some regions, such as the European Union, governments actively guide quantum research, ensuring that advancements align with national security and economic priorities. In others, such as the United States, market-driven forces determine the direction of innovation, with government involvement primarily in regulatory oversight. The effectiveness of these models in driving rapid, scalable quantum deployment will become clearer as the technology matures.

Cybersecurity and Post-Quantum Cryptography

As quantum computing advances, the security implications for existing encryption protocols become increasingly significant. Many current encryption methods are based on mathematical problems that quantum computers could potentially solve more efficiently than classical computers. Efforts to develop post-quantum cryptography are already underway, with new encryption standards being proposed to ensure resilience against quantum decryption capabilities.

The timeline for the widespread deployment of quantum-secure cryptography will depend on how quickly organizations transition to updated security frameworks. If quantum computing capabilities emerge faster than anticipated, there could be a period of heightened cybersecurity risks before new cryptographic standards are fully implemented. Nations that invest early in quantum-resistant encryption solutions may mitigate these risks more effectively.

Conclusion

Quantum technology is advancing at a pace that will likely have significant geopolitical and economic implications. While some nations have established early leads in certain areas of quantum research, the long-term distribution of technological leadership will depend on factors such as investment levels, supply chain security, international collaboration, cybersecurity preparedness, and workforce development.

The evolving landscape of quantum applications suggests that leadership in this field will not be determined solely by initial breakthroughs but by the ability to integrate quantum capabilities into real-world systems. The balance of power in quantum technology remains dynamic, with the potential for shifts based on strategic decisions made in the coming years. Whether quantum advancements lead to greater global cooperation or heightened technological competition remains an open question, with far-reaching consequences for security, industry, and society.

Sources

• CSIS. 2025. The Quantum Future: A Conversation with Admiral Michael Rogers, USN (Ret.). Center for Strategic and International Studies. March 4.

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